Manchester City may not be playing particularly well at present, but their emphatic home form cannot be overlooked and they should still be expected to beat Tottenham.
The price is about right for them to triumph at 8/13 given their run of 22 Premier League wins from 24 games at the Etihad.
However, the 3/1 on offer that they secure the three points by a single-goal winning margin could prove the diamond in the rough.
Seven of the last ten Premier League meetings between the pair have been separated by one goal, including all of the last six to be played at Manchester City.
Tottenham have lost the last three in the league against the Citizens and their form of late does not inspire much confidence that they can beat Roberto Mancini’s men.
They have managed a paltry three goals in their last three encounters with English opposition, who are prime relegation candidates in Southampton, Norwich and Wigan.
Tottenham’s odds are 9/2 to triumph and Andre Villas-Boas has already shown at Old Trafford that he can set his team up perfectly to be dangerous on the counter attack.
But this is unlikely to be as effective at the Etihad, with Man City being better balanced in their midfield, while Spurs will be without the threat of Mousa Dembele who is a regular starter of such moves.
One player that has relished facing Spurs more than any other in recent seasons is Samir Nasri, who has three goals in his last four appearances against them.
This may make him worth an investment at 3/1 to strike at any time in the 90 minutes.
With Man City’s problems defending set plays available for all to see against Ajax, there may also be some value in a Tottenham defender finding the target.
Jan Vertonghen is not only tall, but possesses an attacking intent and a decent shot, which makes his price of 9/1 to find the target in the 90 minutes perhaps a bit on the high side.
Vertonghen is 28/1 to break the deadlock and Ladbrokes are guaranteeing the best prices for all first scorers and correct scorelines at the Etihad.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.