Don’t be put off by overpriced Arsenal – there’s value in the home win

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Arsenal will welcome Manchester City to the Emirates this weekend knowing defeat could see them fall nine points behind the leading quartet in the Premier League.

They’ve lost six of their last nine games in all competitions (four of those being in the top-flight), conceding a whopping 21 goals in the process, while Pep Guardiola’s men head to north London having not lost in the league since mid-January.

All the early signs are pointing towards an away win at 6/5 then, right?

Wrong.

This is exactly the kind of game the Gunners are likely to go out and win 2-0 or 3-0 – that’s what fans and pundits are saying in the build-up – and they’re right.

Because if you strip away all of the negativity surrounding the club right now, they’re still in with a very realistic chance of grabbing a Champions League spot and winning the Emirates FA Cup for the third time in four years.

With that in mind, they’ll head out on Sunday afternoon knowing they must prove themselves. They must play for their manager – who has been the subject of plenty of criticism over the last few months.

And if they do that, they stand a great chance of winning the match. It’s certainly a bet we’re considering at 2/1 – especially when you consider that City have beaten Arsenal just once in Premier League history away from home.

However, those of you expecting the visitors to pile more misery on the Gunners will see that 6/5 as cracking value.

And after losing by a 3-1 scoreline in three of their last eight games, there could be some value in City making it four in nine at 14/1.

They’ll whisper it quietly, but City will still fancy their chances of challenging Chelsea for the title. But that means they can’t afford to drop any points between now and the end of the season. A big ask, but by no means impossible.

With that in mind, and Arsenal already falling behind their top four rivals, there’s simply no value in a draw (13/5) for either side, so that’s a market we’ll steer well clear of, despite the pair sharing the points in three of their last six clashes.

The win is so crucial for both clubs that we’re banking on plenty of goalmouth action. And judging by the prices on offer, so are our traders!

Nevertheless, the 11/8 on over 3.5 goals looks like a cracking bet for this Sunday afternoon thriller.

Click here for a full list of Arsenal v Man City odds.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing

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Alex Apati

Having graduated from Birmingham City University with a degree in Creative Writing with English, Alex joined the News team following a three year stint working for Ladbrokes behind the counter. When he's not watching darts, he's throwing them. Failing that you'll find him YouTubeing Thierry Henry's greatest Arsenal goals.