Bristol City face the mighty task of overhauling Manchester City at the Etihad in the first leg of their Carabao Cup semi-final tonight.
The Championship are huge underdogs at 22/1, with City at 1/10, and the draw at 9/1.
Had this tie happened before Christmas, we’d have given Bristol City a bit of a sniff. But three fixtures later and Lee Johnson’s side have suffered three consecutive defeats.
Wolverhampton Wanderers won at Ashton Gate with the last kick of the game. Then Aston Villa tore the Robins apart at Villa Park, winning 5-0. And Watford dispatched them from the FA Cup after a 3-0 defeat at Vicarage Road.
Johnson will have to pick his side up and go again for this huge clash. And maybe this is the perfect opportunity to bounce back. After all, they did beat Manchester United 2-1 in the previous round.
We can pretty much bank on Pep Guardiola’s side scoring here. That doesn’t need too much of an explanation.
How this game pans out will depend upon on how Johnson approaches it. Will he change tact from his usual attacking game, and keep it tight? Or will he attack Man City?
It’s possible it’ll be a bit of both. Johnson admirably tends to stick to his offensive game plan and tactics. Bristol City have scored in 11 of their 15 away games this season. Both Teams To Score here is 6/5.
It doesn’t take a betting genius to work out Man City are probably going to win this. But where is the value?
Over 3.5 Goals in the game is 3/4. Guardiola will know that a comfortable lead of two to three goals going into the second leg will likely do the job.
Man City to win on the -2 Handicap market at 5/6 looks tempting. Sergio Aguero looks slightly doubtful after suffering an injury in the FA Cup win over Burnley.
David Silva is back in Spain dealing with a family matter so may also miss out here. For a City goal, look no further than Raheem Sterling. The England forward has 18 goals in 25 appearances this term.
Both of these teams tend to score a lot of late goals. 29.7% of Man City’s goals have been in the 75-90 minute bracket. Bristol City have scored over 32% of their goals in the same time-frame.
Both teams to score in the second half is 13/5.
All Odds and Markets correct as of date of publication