Northampton Town grabbed their first win in seven games against Cheltenham Town in the first-leg of their League Two play-off semi-final but it’s the Robins who look the best value to reach Wembley.
Aidy Boothroyd’s visitors take a 1-0 lead going into the decisive contest but that slender advantage can easily be overcome.
The hosts are 6/4 to qualify for the next round, and an examination of the teams’ respective home and away records makes for comfortable reading for punters looking to lump on the Gloucestershire side.
Cheltenham lead the League Two home form table with five wins from their last six at The Abbey Business Stadium.
Almost impenetrable on their own turf, they’ve only suffered two defeats in the league all season with both of those coming back in September.
A run of 13 wins in their 20 home ties since has been the foundation for their success so far.
Conversely, Northampton lie second from bottom in the away version having failed to register a victory in their last six on the road, with just three goals scored and eight conceded.
The Cobblers’ inability to find the target on their travels extends to just six goals scored in their last 10 away from Sixfields and they might not get any change out of Cheltenham’s miserly defence.
Having only shipped 16 goals in 23 league games at home this term, including five consecutive shut outs heading into this contest, Northampton’s forward line will have to be at their sharpest where it matters.
Otherwise, the Cheltenham to win to nil bet could be on the cards and there’s enough evidence to tempt savvy bettors into getting on the 12/5 price.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.