Brentford snatched a 1-1 draw in the 94th minute of their first leg semi-final with Swindon to swing the tie firmly back in their favour.
They are 6/5 to win, while Swindon are 9/4 to shatter the hopes of the Griffin Park faithful. The draw is a 23/10 shot.
Brentford’s defeat to Doncaster was just their third of the season on home soil, and their first loss in nine matches. Swindon, however, have won just two of their last nine, losing four; both of those wins came against sides in the lower half of the table.
Brentford took this fixture 2-1 at GriffinPark in the regular season (March), with leading scorer Clayton Donaldson bagging the winning goal in a dominant performance, Swindon’s blushes spared on several occasions by Wes Foderingham in goal. Donaldson is 5/1 to break the deadlock on Monday, and 11/8 to score at any time.
Performances such as that meant that Uwe Rosler’s men ended the campaign with the best home record of any side in League One this term, picking up 14 wins from 23 fixtures. They look good value for the win here.
Brentford conceded in 14 of 23 matches here this term, while Swindon have the league’s second most prolific attack with 72 goals for the season, and are averaging over a goal per game away from The County Ground. In addition, Swindon have kept one clean sheet in eight, while Brentford have allowed five in their last five here.
Both sides to score, an outcome that would seem highly probable, is consequently priced at 4/5.
In their last 10 matches at home, the Bees have bagged either two or three goals on six occasions. Either of these outcomes can be taken at 6/4, which should find much support, especially when one considers that the Robins have allowed either of those numbers in their last three away matches.
Should 90 minutes and extra time fail to separate the two sides, Brentford may fancy their chances in a penalty shootout after defeating Swindon from the spot in the Football League Trophy in 2010, as well as the League Cup in 2006.
With that in mind, the Bees are 4/7 to progress to Wembley, with Swindon an improbable 5/4 shot. However, it would surprise many if Brentford needed more than 90 minutes to seal a spot in the final.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing