Derby haven’t exited the FA Cup at the third round stage in seven years and that proud record of progress in a competition that they won in 1946 is unlikely to change on Monday despite a potentially tricky tie away to 10/11 Blue Square Premier title favourites Crawley.
The Rams have triumphed in only one of their last seven matches and were dumped out of the Carling Cup by Crewe but they’ve reached the final 16 in three of the last four seasons.
Nigel Clough’s tea also tend to deliver against lower-ranked opposition, as illustrated by the statistic that they have taken 18 of the 21 points available to them against the bottom six Championship sides in 2010-11, so the 11/10 on the visitors looks rather appealing.
The Championship club won’t be entering the unknown at the Broadfield Stadium, as Clough is familiar with Crawley and boss Steve Evans from his time at Burton Albion, during which he never lost any of his three meetings against the Red Devils when Evans was in charge.
Crawley are 12/5 to follow up their upset extra-time victory at Swindon in the last round with a win, with the draw the same price, however they’ve drawn one and lost two of their four toughest home league games and failed to see off the Robins in front of their own fans.
Crawley boast the most prolific attack in their division with an average of 2.1 goals a game and just one occasion where they’ve failed to find the net, while their 300 minutes of FA Cup proper football have produced 12 goals, so over 3.5 goals is an attractive bet at 15/8.
Derby are 14/1 to be 3-1 winners, while their chief goal-threat this season has been Kris Commons with an incredible 13 strikes. If he starts, back him to be the first scorer at 5/1.
A £10 bet on Commons breaking the deadlock provides a £50 profit. New customers can sign up here for a free £10 bet.