Blackburn to avoid Man City goal rush in Etihad FA Cup replay

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As the previews of Manchester City’s FA Cup replay with Blackburn are published far and wide across the interweb, there’ll be a running theme among them that the Citizens will run a-free-scoring-mock among the Championship club’s defence.

There won’t be any of that hooey spouted here though, as the smart money should actually go on City failing to reach their usual net-rippling heights when Rovers come to town.

As is expected, Manuel Pellegrini’s side are well-fancied by Ladbrokes to record a victory at the second time of asking, priced at 1/8. Rovers make the short trip to the Etihad as 18/1 long shots to head home victorious, while a second 90-minute draw in as many meetings is an 8/1 chance.

However, the best bet easily surrounds the 6/5 that says City will fail to score more than 2.5 goals in the game.

That’s because Blackburn, despite their inferior footballing standing, do not allow floods of goals into their net during away games.

In their 13 trips away from Ewood Park this season, the opposition’s goal tally has travelled north of the 2.5 mark on just three occasions. Last season it occurred just six times in a whopping 27 trips, including an FA Cup tie with Arsenal.

What’s more, City don’t always put every team to the sword as you’d expect them to. Home games against Hull and Crystal Palace both saw the men in sky blue fail to pass the 2.5-goal threshold and they’ve actually failed to surpass that mark in two of their last three at the Etihad. Add into the mix the absence of David Silva, Samir Nasri and Yaya Toure and the bet looks even more of a lock.

However, we appreciate the slightly wacky nature of the suggestion and present the game’s special offer, where City’s price to win is boosted to 1/5 if they are included in a multiple bet of five or more teams, as an alternative.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.

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Matt Wiggins

No idyllic sound comes close to leather on willow for Matt, whose previous experience includes stints with Spin Magazine and Surrey County Cricket Club. It's not just cricket that interests him though, with football, golf, tennis and any American sport not played on ice all high on his list of favourites.