Borussia Dortmund may have already lost twice at home in the Bundesliga this season, but it would take a brave man to back Nuremburg at 12/1 to leave the Westfalenstadion with three points.
Firstly, Nuremburg have only won two of their last 20 games against Dortmund in all competitions and Jurgen Klopp’s men warmed up for this one with a 5-0 away trouncing of Werder Bremen in their last Bundesliga encounter.
It is pretty impossible to see anything other than a home win, but with Dortmund 2/9 for victory, value has to be looked for elsewhere.
Dortmund kept clean sheets in nine of their home wins last season, but have only emulated this achievement twice in the current campaign.
The price is 10/11 that they beat Nuremburg without conceding and they did this in four straight games with the opposition until the 1-1 draw between the pair earlier in the season.
This was also the first time in which a Klopp-led Dortmund failed to beat Nuremburg after six successive wins.
Dortmund have largely been scoring and conceding of late, but this could be the game where the tide changes, even if leading defender Neven Subotic is still out injured.
Nuremburg only suffered 1-0 defeats at high-flying duo Bayer Leverkusen and Schalke and despite their lowly league position, their overall defensive record is surprisingly good.
Fewer than 2.5 goals have been netted in six of Nuremburg’s last seven Bundesliga games and 13/8 is a decent price for another repeat.
However, by far the best value on offer comes in the Total Result market, with 23/20 available that Dortmund triumph in a game that sees under 3.5 goals scored.
Alternatively, 11/5 is worthy of consideration in the coupled correct scoreline offerings that Dortmund win either 2-0 or 3-0.
All odds and markets accurate as of publication’s time and date