Punters expecting Manchester City to steam role Aris Thessaloniki should think again – the Greek side have never lost at home in Europe in 40 years.
Their league form may be poor – they currerntly lie in eighth 29 points off leaders Olympiakos – but in 24 European games at the Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium they have never been beaten.
Atletico Madrid and Rosenborg failed, and Bayer Leverkusen only managed a draw in the group stage of the Europa League this season and at 9/2 to beat Man City, Aris offer plenty of value.
Man City are the 8/13 favourites and after seeing their title chances disappear last weekend, Roberto Mancini will be desperate to take a lead back to Eastlands as he searches for silverware.
Mancini’s side recorded just the one away win in the group stages, losing to Lech Poznan and drawing with Juventus, and while Aris home record may not guarantee the win, the 6/5 for the Aris and draw double chance looks the best bet.
Edin Dezko and Mario Balotelli have travelled with the squad to Greece, but while Balotelli isn’t expected to feature, Dzeko will be expected to start repaying some of that £27m fee.
The Bosnian striker is 1/1 to score at any time, but against a defence that has kept four clean sheets in their last nine games, and 10 at home this season, this could be a low scoring game.
Aris are a huge 9/1 to win the match 1-0 while the 1-1 draw is available at 6/1.
However since Aris have scored five goals in their last two European games, punters should seriously consider the 100/1 for Sergio Koke to score first and Aris to win 2-0.
Aris are a big price at 5/1 to qualify but Man City can recover from a first leg defeat to progress at Eastlands.
A £25 stake on Aris winning 2-0 would return £525. New customers can sign up here for a free bet worth £25.