With only three teams left in the hunt for Euro 2016 after Wales’ heroic fall, the net is closing fast on finding value in the tournament’s outright betting markets, but it’s not quite zipped up yet.
Savvy punters should act swiftly before the second semi-final between France and Germany and get some coins on Nani to be Euros top scorer at 12/1.
In the same way that Portugal being the 9/5-outsiders for glory despite being the only certified finalists is a tempting bet, the Selecao’s less fashionable forward will probably be overlooked with Cristiano Ronaldo around.
It’s true that either Nani or his teammate, with three strikes to their names, will have to score two in Sunday’s final to put clear daylight between themselves and current Euros chart topper Antoine Griezmann on four.
However, the fact they are guaranteed the opportunity counts for a lot considering Les Bleus face the competition’s meanest defence next, in the form of the Germans.
Die Mannschaft have only shipped a single goal in the entire tournament up until this point.
Should Germany squeeze through a tight game, as they did 1-0 in the quarters of the last World Cup, then there isn’t a single one of Joachim Low’s side in the reckoning for the top scorer gong now two-goal striker Mario Gomez has been ruled out for the remainder.
After Nani, the market jumps to 100/1-shot Thomas Muller, yet to get off the mark.
If neither Griezmann nor fellow French contenders Olivier Giroud and Dimitri Payet (3) fail to add to their tallies, then Nani and Ronaldo’s odds are sure to shorten considerably.
Ronaldo is the obvious pick, but he’s already installed as the 9/2 second favourite and is bound to be given far more attention by any final opponents than his former Manchester United teammate.
In a five-horse race, where there is also a real possibility that a dead heat occurs and dilutes the final winnings, there seems little harm backing the man whose price will deliver the highest dividends.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.