Germany v Poland: World champions to win but concession likely

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When tournaments get going so do Germany and although Poland engineered a rare win over their neighbours in Euro 2016 qualifying, the world champions are fancied to prevail at Stade de France.

Joachim Low’s side were 2-0 winners over a spirited Ukraine outfit before this clash and Poland, although only 1-0 winners over Northern Ireland, were far more dominant than that scoreline suggests – registering 18 attempts on goal to four.

Something will have to give at the summit of Group C and although Poland possess the most prolific attack from qualifying, it’s that tournament nous that may well see Germany clock up the win they need to guarantee progression in Paris.

History is also on the side of Germany, with the most recent 3-1 victory over Adam Nawalka’s men in the return qualifying game for the finals making it 4-1 in the head-to-head count and crucially in both meetings at major tournaments.

Die Mannschaft are the 4/7 favourites to repeat their second-game victory over their rivals from the 2006 World Cup, with the draw at 16/5 and the Polish upset priced at 11/2.

A straight bet on the Germans may not be the way to play this one though. Anyone who witnessed Low’s team take on Ukraine will have been quite surprised to see their defensive organisation let them down on several occasions.

While the Ukrainians failed to capitalise, a Polish outfit containing sharp shooters such as feared Bayern Munich man Robert Lewandowski – who led the scoring charts in qualifying with 13 – may well ripple Manuel Neuer’s net over 90 minutes.

Both teams scoring and Die Mannschaft winning is a 9/4 chance and feels justified.

Mario Gotze, who operated as a false nine in the win over Ukraine, grabbed a brace the last time the sides met and if he is selected again the Bayern attacker might be the right choice as first goalscorer at 5/1.

Alternatively, Lewnadowski netting first and Germany coming back to win 3-1 is a scorching price at 80/1, or even 2-1 at 60/1.

Bet £20 In-Play on Germany v Poland and get a free £10 In-Play bet on Italy v Sweden.

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All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.

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