They may have reached two Champions League finals since 2014, but the stats suggest Atletico Madrid could suffer a rough ride at the Bay Arena, as they face a Bayer Leverkusen side with an excellent home record – and a familiar face in red-hot form.
Leverkusen haven’t lost any of their last nine Champions League games on home turf, and have won four of their last five in all competitions in North-Rhine Westphalia.
That impressive run has been bolstered by a terrific patch of form from Javier Hernandez. A real confidence player who tends to score goals in spurts, he’s now managed five goals in his last three outings, and looks generously priced to score anytime at 9/4.
Meanwhile, there’s 12/1 on offer for the former Manchester United man to net two or more goals in this clash – something he’s already done eight times since the start of last season.
And when the club on the Rhine are winning, they tend to look pretty imperious. In five of their last six victories, Roger Schmidt’s men have already been ahead by the break, meaning there could be plenty of value in backing Half Time/Full Time: Leverkusen/Leverkusen at 9/2.
However, it does seem likely the visitors will take at least an away goal back to the Vicente Calderon for the second leg. Despite being beaten in three of their last six UCL away games, they have netted in 16 of their last 20 outings in all competitions.
That means the 13/2 for Leverkusen to win and Both Teams to Score is already proving popular.
In the match betting, the hosts look good value for the win at 23/10, with Atleti 13/10 shots and 21/10 on offer for the draw.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing