With Bayern Munich and Atletico Madrid both showing incredible form going into their Champions League semi-final second-leg clash at the Allianz Arena, each winning eight of their past 11 all-competition games, it may pay to be creative when hunting for punting value.
Diego Simeone’s visitors shut-out Pep Guardiola’s side in a 1-0 win at Vicente Calderon, and Atleti are looking to extend an impressive seven-game winning streak, but five of those victories came at the homestead, with three at the expense of La Liga lower lights Granada, Malaga and Rayo Vallecano.
Having not conceded a goal in over six games Los Rojiblancos must be given their due, but Simeone’s swashbucklers are susceptible to the odd away concession, with Espanyol, Valencia, Sporting Gijon and Barcelona all landing blows during Atleti’s last five road matches, the latter pair twice.
Considering Bayern’s blank in Madrid was only the third Champions League match out of 11 so far this season in which Guardiola’s side didn’t score at least twice, the perennial Bundesliga champions must sense goals in this game.
These sides have a short but sweet history against each other, having only played twice before in the 1974 European Cup final and subsequent replay, which Bayern won 4-0 thanks to doubles from Uli Hoeness and Gerd Muller.
It just so happens that the latter’s namesake has a habit of slotting home important braces, with Thomas Muller grabbing two-goal hauls a whopping 10 times for club and country this term, nine of them coming in the shirt of Bayern.
His past four doubles have come in front of the Allianz faithful, with two bagged at home to Werder Bremen just a fortnight ago – his second home brace against said team since the middle of March.
Muller scored his side’s sixth-minute opener in their 1-1 draw against Borussia Monchengladbach at the weekend, so he’s clearly in fine fettle.
You can have 9/2 on the 26-year-old firing the first goal against Atleti, but 17/2 on Muller doubling up at any time during the 90 looks the best bet on offer.
Bayern are solid 13/20 favourites to win the match, with Atletico 9/2 and the draw 11/4.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.