Arsenal v Bayern Munich: Value in the visitors scoring twice

In the desperate scramble for hope in Group F of the Champions League, Arsenal, who need a win against indomitable Bayern Munich to keep qualification dreams alive, may point to the Bavarians’ recent away form in the competition.

One win in five on the European road suggests Bayern could be vulnerable to an upset at the Emirates, but in that run an asterisk can placed alongside three of the four outings they dropped.

Sergio Aguero smashed and grabbed victory for Manchester City from 10-man Bayern in the 2014/15 group stage, scoring twice in the final six minutes to overturn a 2-1 deficit.

Then, in the knockout stages later that season, both Shakhtar and Porto earned favourable results at home to Pep Guardiola’s side – a goalless draw and 3-1 win respectively.

That the Germans responded with 7-0 and 6-1 victories in the second legs suggests they were merely playing within themselves and biding their time in a two-legged encounter where the advantage lies in playing at home last.

Their semi-final appearance against Barcelona, a rival for the Champions League crown, was the only “genuine” away defeat of the run and, upon returning to the road this season, Bayern convincingly beat Olympiacos 3-0.

That scoreline is a worrying omen for Arsenal, who are one defeat from being a lost cause in this year’s competition.

The Gunners have dropped both previous outings in their mini league and conceded three goals the last time they played at home, against the group’s Greek participants.

In fact, Arsene Wenger’s side have conceded three goals the last two times European football has been played at the Emirates. Last season’s 3-1 loss to Monaco perhaps now sitting as a harbinger for the club’s continental decline, rather than an irregularity.

In the current Bundesliga campaign, red-hot Robert Lewandowski and co average 3.22 goals-per-game, they’ve won all nine matches and have opened up a nine-point advantage on their rivals.

All things considered, the 4/6 about them scoring more than 1.5 goals in London is unavoidable.

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Matt Wiggins

No idyllic sound comes close to leather on willow for Matt, whose previous experience includes stints with Spin Magazine and Surrey County Cricket Club. It's not just cricket that interests him though, with football, golf, tennis and any American sport not played on ice all high on his list of favourites.