The best long-term betting strategy ahead of next year’s NBA Championship may involve splitting stakes across a couple of picks from Ladbrokes’ list of ‘Winning State’ contenders, thanks to the particular way this market has been formed.
For example, an £80 bet on ‘All Others’ at 4/7 would return a tidy £45.71 profit if any team that isn’t based in either Texas, California, Florida or Miami lift the Larry O’Brien Championship trophy.
Three of the top four in the outright-winner market fall into this category including 4/1 favourites Cleveland Cavaliers of Ohio, who have lured 10-time NBA All-Star LeBron James back to his home state after four seasons with the Miami Heat.
Champions San Antonio Spurs will be seen as the fly in this particular ointment, but the Texan second-favourites have never retained the title in their 47-year history, which makes them eminently swervable at 5/1 in the outrights.
Their presence among the market leaders is the key reason why the Lone Star state gets a best-of-the-rest 3/1 quote to be top dogs, as the market suggests Houston Rockets are the only other Texans in with a shout of ultimate success.
The Western Conference outfit’s two outright championship wins came in successive 1994/95 campaigns, which makes their 12/1 odds on a third championship, along with the 3s on Texas taking the laurels, basically unbackable.
A better way to hedge your Winning State wager could be with a proportional saver, say £20 in this instance, on California at 6/1.
The USA’s most populous state houses consecutive Pacific Division winners LA Clippers, their neighbours LA Lakers – who took said title five seasons in a row between 2008-12 – and a Golden State Warriors side that have kept hold of All-Star point guard Stephen Curry and are expected to go well.
That’s £100 worth of bets to return £125 if any team from the ‘All Others’ field emerges victorious at the end of April, making it a 1/4 bet, or £140 if one of California’s trio take the title. Not bad work if you can get it.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.
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